I've thought a fair amount lately about dating, marriage, and statistics. Here are the hypotheses I am working off of:
Null Hypothesis: The person you are dating is not who you should marry.
Alternative Hypothesis: The person you are dating is who you should marry.
I guess I've decided that since I do not believe there is one and only one soulmate out there for me, Type II errors shouldn't be too concerning. Or at least as concerning as Type I errors should be.
So, Type I errors are bad, but where do I set my level of confidence? 95%? 99%? I'm not sure. But should I set it too high, I'll never get married. The higher I set alpha, the more likely I am to commit Type II errors.
So what do you do? I don't know. The odd thing is that despite these conclusions, I often am not very concerned about Type I errors, while the tragic feeling of committing a Type II error scares me a lot more. Perhaps I trust my judgment more than I should? Maybe I should be more afraid of Type I errors. What do you think?